Guest Post: AEI CLIENT KEITH ROBERTS ANCIENT VS MODERN BUSINESS
Most people who make investment decisions for themselves or for
business probably have technical investment skills like the ability to
read balance sheets or calculate net present values. But developing an
investment strategy requires a broader perspective, such as the ability
to distinguish between fundamental and incremental change. Using that
example, I would like to show how the history of ancient business can
usefully contribute to such challenges.
My interest in ancient business did not begin as a quest for
investment strategies. As manager of a small manufacturing and
distribution company, I was stomping around my office late one night,
frustrated with our antiquated business practices. I heard myself
mutter, “this place is run like a Roman blacksmith shop!” I stopped.
Did they even have any blacksmith shops in ancient Rome, I wondered?
How did they run, and what did they do? In fact, how did business, to
which billions of us now devote our working lives, even begin, and what
are the important differences between ancient businesses like Roman
blacksmith shops and the computerized, outsourced, internet-linked,
machine-based businesses of today? Such questions led to The Origins of Business, Money, and Markets.
Satisfying curiosity is fun, but knowledge of history has practical
functions as well. Often, the easiest way to understand complex
phenomena like business is to watch their development unfurl over time.
The earliest phases of development often display its driving forces
most clearly, thus constituting a relatively simple model of what may
now be something of bewildering complexity.
In the back of my mind, then, I hoped that by learning about ancient
business and what affected its standing and profitability, I might gain
insight into investment strategies applicable today. As a wise old man
once said, if you want to know where the train is going, look at the
tracks.
In modern life we face an endless succession of changes, many of
which appear dramatic, or are claimed to be so. Important investment
and policy decisions turn on the question of just how fundamental a
change may be. For business, a fundamental change is one that disrupts
existing practices in major ways, often hard to foresee. A leading
modern example would be the Industrial Revolution. Incremental changes
have consequences too, but that’s just life; they do not change the
nature, role, or operations of business, and they have a more limited,
more predictable impact. Distinguishing between one type and the other
is not easy, but has major investment implications.
While change came much more slowly to the ancient world than it does
today, there are some interesting examples of the difference between
fundamental and incremental change. For instance, the coming of the
Iron Age around 1000 BC, a development of immense political importance,
would seem to have fundamentally changed business as well. After all,
the Iron Age led to gigantic empires in the Middle East—the Assyrian,
Babylonian, and Persian—as it dramatically undercut the previous Bronze
Age cost of tools, armor and weaponry. A Bronze Age cooking tripod was
worth three women or twelve oxen to Achilles, but iron tripods
performing the same function cost a small fraction of that.
On closer observation, however, iron technology changed business very
little. Yes, blacksmiths came into their own, and yes, iron tools made
farming more productive. But the Iron Age did not noticeably improve
the marginal role of business in the economies of the Middle East,
change business practices, or lead to disruptive new industries.
Business played no different or larger role in the economies of the
Assyrian, Babylonian, and Persian Empires than it had in the Sumerian
and Egyptian societies that were the first civilizations 2000 years
earlier.
By contrast, the second great change—the invention of
coinage—dramatically altered the role and practice of business in the
Greek world. Coins were invented late in the 7th century BC,
when in order to pay Greek mercenaries the Anatolian kingdom of Lydia
began minting pure gold coins in a size equal to a year’s pay. As the
Greeks learned of this innovation, they began issuing their own coins.
Over the course of the 6th century BC, these became smaller
and more useful as a medium of exchange in their markets. Coins vastly
increased Greek purchasing power.
This revolutionized the nature and role of business. As trade in
coin replaced barter, economic exchanges became much more frequent,
stimulating consumer demand. With more trades in terms of money, prices
became visible indicators of value, and provided instant information
about supply and demand. So useful were these money-based markets that
they, and the traders and manufacturers who worked them, became central
to many city-state economies and were considered defining features of
Greek life. The conquests of Alexander the Great and the Romans later
made this nexus of business, money, and markets the dominant form of
urban economy throughout the western world.
The difference between the impact on business of the Iron Age and of
coinage cautions us to ignore the “shock and awe” of change as a general
proposition, and focus on the practical details of exactly how the
change might work in reality.
Consider now two of the most famous changes taking place currently:
globalization and the computer revolution. With the rapid growth of
nations like China, India, and Brazil, plus the wonderfully written
books of Thomas Friedman, globalization has attracted enormous
attention. It has certainly wreaked havoc with US and European labor
markets, as many formerly well paid jobs have been shipped to low wage
nations, and it has led both to a great new wave of business
consolidation as firms have bulked up for international competition, and
also to new competition as formerly protected national markets have
opened up to firms and products from outside their borders. It has also
permitted a vast expansion of international investment, and with new
players gaining advantage, provided many new investment opportunities.
Based on the example of the Iron Age, however, I would argue that
despite its dramatic political and personal consequences, globalization
does not represent a fundamental change for business. The expansion of
supply chains, the addition or subtraction of competitors, the creation
of new investment opportunities, even the internationalization of
labor—these are all normal conditions of business life. Globalization
has not produced radically new industries, altered the role of business
in modern economies, or fundamentally changed the nature of business
activity. Its investment implications are by no means trivial, but they
hardly point to dramatic innovations, a proliferation of new
businesses, or changed perspectives on the business landscape.
By contrast, the computer revolution (really, the microprocessor
revolution) that started in the 1960’s does indeed seem fundamental,
comparable in scope and impact to the Industrial Revolution. Only with
computers could many scientific calculations even be made, leading to
vital new industries like genomics and virtually the entire modern field
of microbiology. Computer-aided design and manufacturing permit
products and tolerances never before possible. Computers power
virtually instantaneous communication and information capabilities that
are transforming the modes of buying, selling, innovation, marketing,
and business organization.
In finance, computers have greatly increased the trustworthiness of
promises to repay, resulting in a vast expansion of purchasing power by
way of credit. Computers have reduced the risk creditors must bear by
supporting an explosion in options and other hedging instruments. Risk
has also fallen because computers facilitate the creation of credit
instrument portfolios whose risk is lower than that of the components.
By allowing “quants” to create complex structured finance vehicles that
allocate credit risk to parties with different risk preferences,
computers have greatly increased the supply of credit. Computers also
crunch vast quantities of data to provide rapid and massive evaluations
of consumer creditworthiness, making predictions of future repayment far
more accurate. In these and other ways, computers make it far more
rational to provide credit to many more people and businesses than ever
before: that is, to increase the purchasing power that fuels business
activity.
In short, the computer revolution resembles the invention of coinage
far more than it does the advent of the Iron Age. As such, it offers
vast and fertile possibilities for investment, and requires a much
greater focus of attention than do the comparatively simple implications
of globalization. That conclusion, I submit, is important for framing
investment and even public policy strategies. I am sure that it could be
reached without historical knowledge, but for me history has greatly
clarified where the train tracks lead.
Story Merchant Client Kerry Valderama's Memories of a Hundred Made The Top 100 List For The Table Read My Screenplay Contest Sundance 2012
"MEMORIES OF A HUNDRED"
Top 100 list for the Table Read My Screenplay Contest Sundance 2012
The list will be broken down further into the 2 Grand Prize Winners, Top 10 Category Winners,
TOP 100 Overall and Honorable Mentions by Jan. 5th
TOP 100 Overall and Honorable Mentions by Jan. 5th
Authoring and Writing Speaker Dr. Kenneth Atchity
Producer/literary manager Dr. Ken Atchity (Yale Ph.D., former professor of comparative literature and Fulbright professor)-Author & Writing-author of fifteen books including A Writer’s Time: A Guide to the Creative Process from Vision through Revision, and Emmy-nominated producer of 30 films, spent his lifetime turning stories into books and films. Based in Los Angeles and New York, will travel anywhere in the world. His keynote speeches are known for their industry knowledge, practicality, classical allusions, and sheer inspiration for audiences seeking to advance and maintain their creativity.
Guest Post: AEI CLIENT DENNIS PALUMBO'S COLUMN FOR PSYCHOLOGY TODAY
There's an old joke about a man working in the circus, whose job it was to follow behind the elephants, sweeping up their droppings. When asked why he doesn't find some other line of work, he replies, "What, and leave show business?"
What makes the joke funny, of course, is the truth behind it. Creative and talented people, having once tasted the nectar of Hollywood success, find it almost impossible to quit the field, even when the odds are stacked against them.
And nothing stacks the odds higher than committing the one unpardonable sin in Hollywood---getting older. As the late, great TV writer Larry Gelbart once said, "The only way to beat ageism in Hollywood is to die young."
I ought to know. I deal with issues like ageism in the entertainment industry---not to mention depression, creative "blocks," relationship crises and dozens of other concerns---every day in my therapy practice.
What makes the joke funny, of course, is the truth behind it. Creative and talented people, having once tasted the nectar of Hollywood success, find it almost impossible to quit the field, even when the odds are stacked against them.
And nothing stacks the odds higher than committing the one unpardonable sin in Hollywood---getting older. As the late, great TV writer Larry Gelbart once said, "The only way to beat ageism in Hollywood is to die young."
I ought to know. I deal with issues like ageism in the entertainment industry---not to mention depression, creative "blocks," relationship crises and dozens of other concerns---every day in my therapy practice.
Who am I? I'm a former Hollywood screenwriter (My Favorite Year; Welcome Back, Kotter, etc.), now a licensed psychotherapist in private practice in Los Angeles. And though I've retired from film and TV, I still do some writing---articles, reviews, and, most recently, a new series of mystery novels.
But my full-time day job is my therapy practice. Given my background, I suppose it's no surprise that my patients are primarily writers, actors, and directors in the entertainment industry. They range from the famous and successful to the unknown and struggling. And after over 23 years of doing therapy in Hollywood, I can state one thing with complete confidence:
Doing therapy is the same everywhere. Except here, where it's different.
Which, by way of example, brings me back to ageism.
At 63, my patient Walter (not his real name, of course) has been directing episodic television for most of his adult life---except for the past five years, during which, despite Herculean efforts to get work, he's been unemployed. He also got divorced and lost his house, and had to move to a condo in Burbank.
At a recent session, Walter announced more bad news.
"My agent finally dumped me," he said quietly, without rancor.
"I'm sorry, Walter. I know you've been his client a long time."
"Twenty-one years. Lasted longer than my marriage. And the sex was better..." He managed a rueful smile. "Hey, I can't blame him. He busted his ass for me. But let's face it, nobody wants to see a gray-haired old fart like me on the set. Everybody there looks like my grandchildren."
As is often the case with patients in his situation, we talked about options. Walter agreed that he could probably teach, but that even teaching jobs were getting scarce and the money wasn't very good.
But the money wasn't really what bothered him. Right now, at 63, he felt he was a better director than at any time in his life. He knew his craft, he understood actors, he could keep his head in a crisis. But it seemed clear that nobody wanted to see a face much over 40 or 45 nowadays.
"I might as well pack it in," he said gloomily. "My life in this town is over."
"Your life isn't over, Walter." I said. "Neither is your career. Unless you're ready for it to be over."
"What does that mean?"
"It means you don't have to let other people decide what you can do. Or how to feel about what you can do."
"Hell, don't get all therapeutic on me now."
"I'm not. I'm being pragmatic. If you want to teach, go teach. But if you still love directing, go find something to direct. A play. A short film. You say you have a few bucks. Okay, then hire someone to write something. Or rent a small theater downtown and put something up on its feet."
"Forget it. I'm used to working for studios. Networks. Guys with parking spaces on the lot, who at least have to pay me for the privilege of pissing all over my work."
"And I know how much you'll miss that. But at least you'll be directing. If that's what you still want to do."
"Hell, it's what I am."
He sat back, stroking the edge of his trim, salt-and-pepper beard. Then he laughed. "Hey," he said, "remember that joke about the guy at the circus, cleaning up after the elephants?"
"One of my favorites."
"You think I'm that guy?"
"Walter, I think we're all that guy. These are the lives we lead, the things we do. If it's who we really are, all we can do is keep doing it. As a colleague of mine said once, about trying to achieve in any profession: Keep giving them you, until you is what they want."
He paused. "You know, Alvin Sergeant is in his 70's or 80's, and he wrote those first Spider-Man movies. Huge hits. For years, David Chase couldn't get arrested, and then he creates The Sopranos. Hell, John Huston directed his last picture in a wheelchair, sitting next to an oxygen tank."
"All true."
"I mean, maybe I'm just kiddin' myself, but..." He nodded toward the door. "There's gotta be at least one more elephant out there, right?"
I smiled. "I've never known a circus without one."
Story Merchant Client Lisa Cerasoli's Tribute to Nora Jo
Powerful video footage of Lisa's gram, Nora Jo, revealing what it really means to have Alzheimer disease. Music, "Cattails" by Kevin Macleod.
Lisa's short film 14 Days with Alzheimer's is based on the memoir As Nora Jo Fades Away.
Authoring and Writing Speaker Dr. Kenneth Atchity
Producer/literary manager Dr. Ken Atchity (Yale Ph.D., former professor of comparative literature and Fulbright professor)-Author & Writing-author of fifteen books including A Writer’s Time: A Guide to the Creative Process from Vision through Revision, and Emmy-nominated producer of 30 films, spent his lifetime turning stories into books and films. Based in Los Angeles and New York, will travel anywhere in the world. His keynote speeches are known for their industry knowledge, practicality, classical allusions, and sheer inspiration for audiences seeking to advance and maintain their creativity.
The Heiligenstadt Testament ...
is a letter written by Ludwig van Beethoven to his brothers Carl and Johann at Heiligenstadt (today part of Vienna) on 6 October 1802.
It reflects his despair over his increasing deafness and his desire to overcome his physical and emotional ailments in order to complete his artistic destiny. Beethoven kept the document hidden among his private papers for the rest of his life, and probably never showed it to anyone. It was discovered in March 1827, after Beethoven's death, by Anton Schindler and Stephan von Breuming, who had it published the following October.
A curiosity of the document is that, while Carl's name appears in the appropriate places, blank spaces are left where Johann's name should appear (as in the upper right corner of the accompanying image). There have been numerous proposed explanations for this, ranging from Beethoven's uncertainty as to whether Johann's full name (Nikolaus Johann) should be used on this quasi-legal document, to his mixed feelings of attachment to his brothers, to transference of his lifelong hatred of the boys' alcoholic, abusive father (ten years dead in 1802), also named Johann.
Lockwood, Lewis (2003). Beethoven: The Music and the Life. New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN 0-393-32638-1.
THE HEILIGENSTADT TESTAMENT
For my brothers Carl and Johann Beethoven
Oh you men who think or say that I am malevolent, stubborn, or misanthropic, how greatly do you wrong me. You do not know the secret cause which makes me seem that way to you. From childhood on, my heart and soul have been full of the tender feeling of goodwill, and I was even inclined to accomplish great things. But, think that for six years now I have been hopelessly afflicted, made worse by senseless physicians, from year to year deceived with hopes of improvement, finally compelled to face the prospect of a lasting malady (whose cure will take years or, perhaps, be impossible).
Though born with a fiery, active temperament, even susceptible to the diversions of society, I was soon compelled to isolate myself, to live life alone. If at times I tried to forget all this, oh, how harshly was I flung back by the doubly sad experience of my bad hearing. Yet it was impossible for me to say to people, "Speak Louder, shout, for I am deaf". Oh, how could I possibly admit an infirmity in the one sense which ought to be more perfect in me than others, a sense which I once possessed in the hightést perfection, a perfection such as few in my profession enjoy or ever have enjoyed. – Oh I cannot do it; therefore forgive me when you see me draw back when I would have gladly mingled with you.
My misfortune is doubly painful to me because I am bound to be misunderstood; for me there can be no relaxation with my fellow men, no refined conversations, no mutual exchange of ideas. I must live almost alone, like one who has been banished. I can mix with society only as much as true necessity demands. If I approach near to people a hot terror seizes upon me, and I fear being exposed to the danger that my condition might be noticed. Thus it has been during the last six months which I have spent in the country. By ordering me to spare my hearing as much as possible, my intelligent doctor almost fell in with my own present frame of mind, though sometimes I ran counter to it by yielding to my desire for companionship.
But what a humiliation for me when someone standing next to me heard a flute in the distance and I heard nothing, or someone standing next to me heard a shepherd singing and again I heard nothing. Such incidents drove me almost to despair; a little more of that and I would have ended my life. It was only my art that held me back. Oh, it seemed to me impossible to leave the world until I had forth all that I felt was within me. So I endured this wretched existence, truly wretched for so susceptible a body, which can be thrown by a sudden change from the best condition to the worst. Patience, they say, is what I must now choose for my guide, and I have done so - I hope my determination will remain firm to endure until it pleases the inexorable Parcae to break the thread. Perhaps I shall get better, perhaps not; I am ready. - Forced to become a philosopher already in my twenty-eight year, oh, it is not easy, and for the artist much more difficult than for anyone else. Divine One, thou seest my inmost soul thou knowest that therein dwells the love of mankind and the desire to do good. Oh, fellow men, when at some point you read this, consider then that you have done me injustice. Someone who has had misfortune may console himself to find a similar case to his, who despite all the limitations of Nature nevertheless did everything within his powers to become accepted among worthy artist and men.
ActorsE Chat with Story Merchant and Writing Coach Ken Atchity and Comic Host Brett Walkow
Ken Atchity with Brett Walkow
ActorsE Chat is a Live Chat Show on Actors Entertainment,
a site on the Actors Podcast Network, a Pepper Jay Production
Interview with Author and Therapist Story Merchant Client Dennis Palumbo by Breakfree to Success
Listen to internet radio with Breakfree to Success on Blog Talk Radio
Previously "BreakFree to Success"- the Doug Foresta Show is a self-help show for creative people. The show features extraordinary creative people sharing tips and inspiration for living a successful creative life.Doug Foresta is a radio host, speaker and consultant who helps creative people tap into their inner "spark" and fully express their creativity. The show features one-of-a-kind guest lineup- everyone from celebrities and and up and coming artists to CEO's, business leaders, and unique creative people from all over the world! For more information about the show and various guests, and to read Doug's reflections on the various shows and post your thoughts and comments, visit www.dougforesta.com
Story Merchant Client Lisa Cerasoli's "14 DAYS WITH ALZHEIMERS" is a 2011 NexTV Web Series & Indie Film Competition Semi-Finalist
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ActorsE Chat with Story Merchant and Writing Coach Ken Atchity and Comic Host Brett Walkow
Ken Atchity with Brett Walkow
ActorsE Chat is a Live Chat Show on Actors Entertainment,
a site on the Actors Podcast Network, a Pepper Jay Production
WILLIAMS DIEHL'S LAST NOVEL IS NOW AVAILABLE ON NOOK BOOK DEVICES AND APPS!
nookbook http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/seven-ways-to-die-william-diehl/1008171998?ean=2940013453814
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Overview
From the Nez Perce Indian reservation in Idaho to New York’s Central Park is a straight line right through Bill Diehl’s last and most intriguing lead character, Micah Cody.There are seven basic ways to die. In 1969 Dr. John C. Cavanaugh catalogued them all in his Primer of Forensic Pathology-Cast Studies for the Novice M.E.
Micah Cody is a 30-something NYPD captain of homicide, who’s founded a special unit known as TAZ with city-wide license to take over any investigation at all, with special focus on serial killers. Now its ultimate challenge is on the loose in Manhattan, with three victims already whose causes of death seem like intentional defiance of TAZ’s existence—and four to go in four deadly days leading up to Halloween. Chronicling it all with great amusement is the Capote-like award-winning crime writer Ward Hamilton who, egged on by his sexually voracious socialite bedmate, is determined to bring TAZ to its knees journalistically.
Captain Micah Cody's Nez Perce name is “Youngest Wolf” from his ability to communicate with the animals and read nature's signs. As all hell is breaking loose in Manhattan, the wolves in Central Park howl, the peregrine falcons shriek their warnings—and Micah is listening.
Seven Ways to Die is a non-stop, sexy read with Diehl doing to the end what he did best throughout his bestselling career.
Product Details
- BN ID: 2940013453814
- Publisher: AEI Books
- Publication date: 11/18/2011
- Format: eBook
- File size: 375 KB
- Items ship to U.S, APO/FPO and U.S. Protectorate addresses.
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Overview
From the Nez Perce Indian reservation in Idaho to New York’s Central Park is a straight line right through Bill Diehl’s last and most intriguing lead character, Micah Cody.There are seven basic ways to die. In 1969 Dr. John C. Cavanaugh catalogued them all in his Primer of Forensic Pathology-Cast Studies for the Novice M.E.
Micah Cody is a 30-something NYPD captain of homicide, who’s founded a special unit known as TAZ with city-wide license to take over any investigation at all, with special focus on serial killers. Now its ultimate challenge is on the loose in Manhattan, with ...